Final Estimates Tomorrow Morning
by Drew • November 5, 2012 • Uncategorized • 40 Comments
I entered nearly 50 new state polls in the most recent model update, posted earlier today. There have been over 30 additional polls released since then. I’ll wait a few more hours to see if any more come out, then run the model one more time, overnight. My final estimates will be ready in the morning.
In the meantime, you might have noticed that my EV forecast for Obama inched downward for the first time in weeks, from 332 to 326. That’s the median of my election simulations, but it doesn’t correspond to a particularly likely combination of state-level outcomes. Instead, it reflects the declining probability that Obama will win Florida (now essentially a 50-50 proposition), and Obama’s continuing deficit in North Carolina. I’ve updated the title on the chart in the banner to make this clear.
Depending on how things go with the final run, I’ll keep updating the chart as I have been, using the median. But I’ll also create a more true-to-life forecast, based on assigning each state to its most likely outcome. With Florida (and its 29 electoral votes) right on the knife edge, this will either be Obama 332-206 if the model projects an Obama victory there, or Obama 303-235 if the model shows Obama behind. I’ll also have all sorts of other tables and charts ready to go for comparing the election results as they’re announced.
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