Drew Linzer is a statistician and survey scientist in Berkeley, CA, and previously an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Emory University and professional pollster in California and Washington, DC. His research has appeared in the American Political Science Review, Journal of the American Statistical Association, International Journal of Forecasting, Political Analysis, Political Science Research and Methods, Journal of Politics, World Politics, Social Science & Medicine, and the Journal of Statistical Software. Drew holds a PhD in Political Science from the University of California, Los Angeles.
Selected Press for Votamatic
2012-10-25: “Triumph of the (Electoral) Nerds?” Paul Krugman, New York Times
2012-10-27: “The state of play: Where we are, ten days out” The Economist
2012-11-05: “The Rise of the Poll Quants” The Chronicle of Higher Education
2012-11-07: “The Poll Quants Won the Election” The Chronicle of Higher Education
2012-11-07: “Nate Silver Wasn’t the Only One to Nail the Election—nor Was He the First” The Atlantic
2012-11-08: “Drew Linzer: The stats man who predicted Obama’s win” BBC News Magazine
2012-11-08: “Votamatic predicts every state correctly” The Daily Caller
2012-11-08: “Emory professor called Electoral landslide in June” Atlanta Journal-Constitution
2012-11-08: “The Best and Worst Pundit Predictors of 2012” The Atlantic Wire
2012-11-10: “Cassidy’s Count: A Victory for the Pollsters and the Forecasters” The New Yorker
2012-11-11: “How to Predict an Election—Polling Aggregators Sam Wang and Drew Linzer” The 7th Avenue Project (radio interview)
2012-11-11: “The election prediction game: The winners and the losers” Los Angeles Times
2012-11-11: “The Approval Matrix: Week of November 19, 2012” New York Magazine
Benjamin E. Lauderdale and Drew A. Linzer. 2015. Under-performing, Over-performing, or Just Performing? The Limitations of Fundamentals-based Presidential Election Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting. 31(3): 965-979. [Ungated version]
Tom S. Clark and Drew A. Linzer. 2015. Should I Use Fixed or Random Effects? Political Science Research and Methods. 3(2): 399-408.
Drew A. Linzer and Jeffrey K. Staton. 2015. A Global Measure of Judicial Independence, 1948–2012. Journal of Law and Courts. 3(2): 223-256. [Project website]
Drew A. Linzer. 2013. Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 108(501): 124-134. [Ungated version]
Lisa Blaydes and Drew A. Linzer. 2012. Elite Competition, Religiosity, and Anti-Americanism in the Islamic World. American Political Science Review. 106(2): 225-243.
Drew A. Linzer. 2012. The Relationship between Seats and Votes in Multiparty Systems. Political Analysis. 20(3): 400-416. [Replication file]
Drew A. Linzer. 2011. Reliable Inference in Highly Stratified Contingency Tables: Using Latent Class Models as Density Estimators. Political Analysis. 19(2): 173-187. [Replication file]
Drew A. Linzer and Jeffrey B. Lewis. 2011. poLCA: An R Package for Polytomous Variable Latent Class Analysis. Journal of Statistical Software. 42(10): 1-29.
Hadley, Craig, Drew A. Linzer, Tefera Belachew, Abebe Gebre Mariam, Fasil Tessema, and David Lindstrom. 2011. Household Capacities, Vulnerabilities and Food Insecurity: Shifts in Food Insecurity in Urban and Rural Ethiopia During the 2008 Food Crisis. Social Science & Medicine. 73(10): 1534-1542.
Lisa Blaydes and Drew A. Linzer. 2008. The Political Economy of Women’s Support for Fundamentalist Islam. World Politics. 60(4): 576-609.
Drew A. Linzer and Ronald L. Rogowski. 2008. Lower Prices: The Impact of Majoritarian Systems in Democracies Around the World. The Journal of Politics. 70(1): 17-27.
Jeffrey B. Lewis and Drew A. Linzer. 2005. Estimating Regression Models in which the Dependent Variable Is Based on Estimates. Political Analysis. 13(4): 345-364.
Drew A. Linzer. 2005. Statistical Regularities in the Recall Results. In Shawn Bowler and Bruce Cain, eds., Clicker Politics: Essays on the California Recall. New York: Prentice Hall.