Polling Analysis and Election Forecasting

Looking for Presidential Election Forecasts?

Please head over to Daily Kos Elections, where you’ll find the implementation of my forecasting model this year. My forecasts are also part of the comparison table at The Upshot at the New York Times, labeled ‘DK’.

In addition to predictions of the presidential race, we are making forecasts of all of the 2016 Senate races, and we’re calculating a complete set of poll-tracking trendlines for every state. Here’s the North Carolina presidential matchup.

For polling trends in all 50 states at a glance, you can also check out the poll tracker page at this site, or my trend detail page, which gives a zoomed-in look at how voter preferences have shifted during the campaign.

1 Comment

  1. Carl Warner

    But Drew, your Daily Kos model says the race for the White House won’t be close (91% probability we’ll get a “First Man”) and what fun is that? We’d all (according to the media apparently) prefer to hear the only guru in town (Mr. Silver, of course) pontificate on how tight it is (538.com as of this minute – because the forecast can change by the minute – gives Clinton a 64.7% chance of winning, well below you, HuffPost, PEC, Upshot, etc.). But no matter. If the election ends up being nowhere near as tight as he’s claiming, no one will remember. Once the expert, always the expert.

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